Conservatives to vote on Poilievre’s leadership in Calgary as caucus rallies, with legitimacy test looming

By Tahani Elghazaly
Published January 29, 2026

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Conservative Party delegates gathering in Calgary for the party’s national convention are set to hold a mandatory leadership review vote on Pierre Poilievre, a process required by the party’s constitution after an election in which the party does not form government and the leader does not signal an intention to resign.

Under the rules outlined ahead of the convention, a leadership contest would be triggered if more than 50 percent of delegates vote to initiate that process, making the size of Poilievre’s margin as politically important as clearing the formal threshold.

Canadian coverage and strategists cited in local reporting say Poilievre is expected to survive, but warn that anything close to the minimum could prolong doubts about his standing and weaken his capacity to reset the party’s message, with some pointing to support in the high 60s as a safer benchmark. Analysts also note an absence of an organized internal alternative, which works in Poilievre’s favour heading into the vote.

The convention comes as Poilievre has returned to Parliament through an Alberta by-election after losing his previous seat in the last federal vote, while the caucus has also been tested by high-profile departures and floor crossings to Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberals, keeping party unity and discipline in sharp focus.

Polling referenced in Canadian reporting shows Conservatives trailing nationally while remaining dominant in Alberta, reinforcing the internal debate over broadening the coalition beyond core regions and improving appeal with voters the party has struggled to win, including women.

The vote also revives a rare precedent: the last mandatory review of this kind occurred in 2005, when Stephen Harper secured 84 percent support and later went on to form government. For Poilievre, observers say his convention speech is expected to serve as a strategic reset moment as much as a leadership test.