Expected rate hold in Canada: what it could mean for housing in six major cities

Canada’s housing market is not living through a clean rebound or a sharp collapse right now. What dominates instead is hesitation. That is why expectations that the Bank of Canada may leave its policy rate unchanged on March 18 matter beyond economics alone. For buyers and sellers, the real question is whether a hold would bring enough clarity to support action, or simply extend the waiting game. The Bank kept its policy rate at 2.25% on January 28, and the next decision is scheduled for March 18, 2026.

A likely hold would mean variable borrowing costs do not immediately fall, but they also would not be pushed higher by a fresh move this week. In practice, that may calm nerves more than it changes affordability. Buyers who feared another hike may feel some relief, but those hoping for cheaper financing may still hold back. In that sense, a rate hold would be more likely to steady sentiment than trigger a broad housing surge.

In the Greater Toronto Area, hesitation remains clear. TRREB reported 3,868 home sales in February, down 6.3% from a year earlier. The average selling price was $1,008,968, while the composite benchmark was down 7.9% year over year. A rate hold here could help bring some sidelined buyers back into the conversation, but it would not by itself restore the kind of overheated competition Toronto saw in earlier years.

In Ottawa, the picture looks more balanced. The Ottawa Real Estate Board reported 780 residential sales in February, with an average residential price of $662,773, down just 1.0% from a year ago. Months of inventory eased to 3.8, keeping the city in balanced-market territory. In a market like this, a rate hold may matter less for price swings and more for giving buyers the confidence to move forward.

In Montreal, the market appears firmer than in several other major cities. APCIQ said the market stabilized in February while condominium supply surged. Prices still rose across major property types, with the median single-family home at $639,000 up 7%, and the median condominium at $430,000 up 2%. For Montreal, a rate hold may be less about restarting demand and more about preserving momentum that has not fully broken.

In Metro Vancouver, the tone remains softer. GVR said the market’s “new normal” continued in February, with apartment sales at 824, down 15.6% year over year. The benchmark apartment price was $708,200, down 6.8%, while the benchmark detached price was $1,835,900, down 8.8%. A rate hold could help prevent sentiment from weakening further, but it does not yet look like enough on its own to transform demand in a market still dealing with affordability strain and cautious buyers.

In Calgary, the market remains more resilient than Toronto or Vancouver, though it has clearly cooled from earlier intensity. CREB data showed 1,527 sales in February against 2,766 new listings, with 4,873 active listings and a benchmark price of $560,500, down 4.4% year over year. That suggests a market moving toward balance rather than collapse, and a rate hold may help it stay there.

In Halifax-Dartmouth, activity is still moving, but more slowly. NSAR data showed 307 sales in February, down 8.6% year over year, while the average price reached $594,940, up 0.7%. That points to a market where transactions are slowing without a major price breakdown. In cities like Halifax, a rate hold may help keep buyers engaged even if it does not suddenly accelerate the market.

The broader takeaway is that a Bank of Canada hold, if it happens on March 18, would not mean a national housing rebound overnight. It would more likely offer a little more visibility. Toronto and Vancouver may remain cautious, Ottawa and Halifax could benefit from steadier confidence, Montreal looks relatively firm, and Calgary appears to be settling into a more balanced phase. The decision alone will not change everything, but it could shape the tone of the spring housing market across Canada’s major cities.