Markets Await Bank of Canada Decision This Week as U.S. Trade Risks Stay in Focus

By Tahani Elghazaly
Published January 26, 2026

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Markets are watching the Bank of Canada’s rate decision this week, with the dominant expectation that policymakers will hold the policy rate at 2.25%, while signaling remains highly sensitive to trade risks tied to the United States.

The Bank’s official schedule shows the decision will be released on Wednesday, January 28 at 9:45 a.m. ET alongside the Monetary Policy Report, followed by a press conference around 10:30 a.m. ET.

A Reuters poll found all surveyed economists expect a hold at the January announcement, and a strong majority sees rates staying steady through 2026, even as markets debate whether the next move later on is more likely to be a cut or a hike.

The backdrop is mixed: Canada’s CPI rose 2.4% year over year in December versus 2.2% in November, while CPI excluding gasoline rose 3.0%, but Reuters noted December job growth stalled and the unemployment rate edged higher.

Investors will also parse the Bank’s language on tariffs and the 2026 USMCA review, which economists and officials have flagged as a key source of uncertainty for investment and the outlook