Poll: Ontario PCs Lead Despite Strong Desire for Change

By Tahani Elghazaly
Published June 26, 2026

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Ontario’s Progressive Conservatives remain ahead in voter support, even as a large majority of residents say they want a change in government, according to a new Abacus Data poll published on June 25, 2026. The poll, conducted for the Toronto Star, shows Premier Doug Ford’s party holding a clear lead over the opposition in Ontario’s provincial political landscape.

Among decided voters, the Progressive Conservatives stand at 41%, followed by the Ontario Liberals at 32%, the Ontario NDP at 19%, and the Green Party at 5%. The result gives the governing PCs a nine-point lead over the Liberals, while opposition support remains divided between three parties.

The poll suggests the PCs have stabilized after weeks of political pressure linked to controversy over the government’s purchase and rapid sale of a private jet. Abacus Data said PC support has remained around 41% across recent tracking waves, indicating that the party continues to hold its core vote despite a difficult environment for the Ford government.

At the same time, the survey points to a deeper problem for the government. Abacus found that 70% of Ontarians want a change in government to some degree, including 52% who say it is definitely time for a change and 18% who say change would be good but is not a top priority. Only 30% lean toward keeping the PCs in office.

The broader mood in the province also remains negative. According to the poll, 56% of respondents say Ontario is headed in the wrong direction, while 31% say it is moving in the right direction. That dissatisfaction has not yet translated into a clear opposition advantage, partly because the anti-government vote is split.

Regionally, the PCs continue to benefit from broad support across several parts of the province. Abacus reported that the party leads in the Greater Toronto Area outside the city, southwestern Ontario and eastern Ontario, while Toronto itself is more competitive, with the PCs and Liberals roughly tied.

The poll also shows important demographic divides. The PCs lead among men and among voters aged 30 and older, while the Liberals perform best among younger voters aged 18 to 29. Among women, the race is much closer, with the PCs and Liberals separated by only a small margin.

Ford also remains ahead on the question of preferred premier. Abacus found that 39% of respondents chose Ford, compared with 18% for Ontario NDP Leader Marit Stiles, 12% for Ontario Liberal interim leader John Fraser, and 7% for Green Party Leader Mike Schreiner.

The Abacus numbers differ from some other recent Ontario polling. Liaison Strategies reported on June 19 that the Ontario Liberals were ahead of the PCs by three points, 38% to 35%, while Doug Ford’s approval had fallen to 26%. A Leger poll published in May showed the PCs ahead at 39%, followed by the Liberals at 34%, the NDP at 17%, and the Greens at 6%.