Quebec housing market enters recalibration phase in 2026 amid supply constraints
Latest news on WhatsApp أجدد الأخبار على واتسابAfter several years of above-trend activity, Quebec’s resale housing market is projected to stabilize rather than contract in 2026.
QPAREB data show that 97,214 residential transactions were recorded in 2025, up 8% year over year and well above the 10-year average. In 2026, sales are forecast to decline modestly by roughly 2%, to about 95,700 transactions, reflecting affordability pressures, slower population growth, and interest-rate sensitivity.
However, market fundamentals remain tight. Structural inventory shortages — particularly in the single-family segment — are expected to sustain price growth, albeit at a more measured pace. The median price for detached homes is projected to reach approximately $520,200 (+6%), while condominiums are forecast at $408,000 (+3%).
Regionally, divergence persists. Greater Montreal is likely to experience softer sales with clearer signs of rebalancing in the condo segment as listings rise. In contrast, Quebec City continues to face historically low active listings, keeping upward pressure on prices despite slower transaction volumes.
Nationally, CMHC notes that macroeconomic uncertainty and slower demographic growth may temper demand across Canada, yet Quebec is expected to remain comparatively resilient, supported by sustained construction activity and more stable pricing dynamics than some overheated metropolitan markets.
Outlook
The data do not signal a downturn, but rather a transition from rapid acceleration to a more sustainable equilibrium. For investors and homebuyers alike, 2026 may represent a market defined less by bidding wars and more by strategic positioning in a supply-constrained environment.
