Research note warns 28 million outbound trips from the Middle East are at risk this year because of the Iran
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A new research note has warned that the Iran war is widening the economic damage across the Middle East’s travel sector, estimating that nearly 28 million outbound trips from the region are at risk in 2026 because of disrupted air travel, weaker demand, and the broader economic fallout from the conflict. Reuters referenced the estimate in reporting tied to an Oxford Economics note on the region’s travel outlook.
The warning fits a broader deterioration already outlined by Oxford Economics. In a March 4 briefing, the firm said inbound arrivals to the Middle East could fall by 11% to 27% year on year in 2026, implying a loss of 23 million to 38 million international visitors versus its earlier baseline and a hit of $34 billion to $56 billion in visitor spending this year. Oxford Economics also noted that Middle Eastern airports account for about 14% of global international transit activity, underlining how regional disruption can quickly spill into wider aviation networks.
Operational data already shows the strain. Reuters reported, citing Cirium data, that about 30,000 flights to and from Middle East airports had been cancelled as of March 17. Emirates alone has cancelled more than 2,000 flights since February 28, equivalent to about 54% of its schedule, while cancellation rates were even higher at Qatar Airways and Etihad. Intermittent missile and drone alerts have also forced sudden diversions and mid-air turnarounds across the region.
The cost pressure is rising at the same time. IATA Director General Willie Walsh told Reuters that the widening conflict will push airfares higher and leave “no winners,” adding that airlines may eventually cut capacity if jet fuel supply becomes constrained. His comments came as attacks on Gulf energy facilities pushed crude prices above $100 a barrel, adding another layer of pressure to airline economics.
Air cargo markets are also feeling the impact. Reuters said freight rates on some routes have risen by as much as 70% since the war began, while jet fuel prices have doubled. That means the crisis is no longer only about passenger flows or tourism sentiment. It is increasingly a logistics, pricing, and supply-chain story that could weigh on Gulf economies well beyond the immediate military confrontation.
Taken together, the estimate of almost 28 million at-risk outbound trips now looks less like an abstract scenario and more like a warning grounded in rapidly worsening aviation conditions across the region.
