Israeli exit polls leave Netanyahu and opposition short of a majority

By Tahani Elghazaly
Published October 27, 2026

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Israel faces uncertain coalition negotiations after election-night exit polls suggested that neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s allies nor the opposition had secured a parliamentary majority.

Projections reported by The Jerusalem Post on Tuesday, Oct. 27, 2026, gave the opposition 52–53 seats, Netanyahu’s bloc about 50, and Arab-led parties 17–18 in the 120-member Knesset. These are survey estimates, not confirmed results from the vote count.

Netanyahu’s main challenger is former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, leader of the Yashar party. Israelis vote for party lists rather than directly electing a prime minister, making the ability to assemble parliamentary support decisive once the seats are allocated.

The projected strength of Arab-led parties could give them a significant role in negotiations. But political barriers remain: both main camps have so far rejected a partnership with them, according to The Associated Press. Outside backing for an opposition minority government is one possible route, although no agreement establishing such an arrangement has been announced.

The projections therefore establish neither Netanyahu’s departure nor his return to office. The count will determine the composition of parliament; subsequent negotiations will determine whether a viable government can emerge.

Official results are scheduled for publication on Nov. 4, according to the Central Elections Committee’s timetable. President Isaac Herzog will consult party leaders before selecting the candidate he considers best placed to form a government. If efforts to assemble an administration fail, another election could follow, with the current government remaining in a caretaker capacity.