After 2025 loss, Poilievre resets as new polls widen Carney’s Liberal lead

By Tahani Elghazaly
Published March 4, 2026

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A fresh run of polling suggests Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberals have opened a clearer advantage over Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives, highlighting how Canada’s post-2025 political polarization is still shaping the race.

Nanos Research’s weekly tracking ending Feb. 27 (released March 3) put the Liberals at 44% and the Conservatives at 33%, with Carney leading as preferred prime minister at 56% versus 22% for Poilievre. Abacus Data, surveying Feb. 18–23, reported a 44% Liberal vote share and a six-point national lead, alongside government approval above 50%. Liaison Strategies’ March 2 tracker similarly showed the Liberals at 43% and the Conservatives at 33% among decided and leaning voters.

The numbers land against the backdrop of the April 2025 election, when the Liberals stayed in power with a minority government and Poilievre lost his Ontario seat before returning to Parliament via an Alberta by-election. In January 2026, Conservative members voted 87.4% to keep Poilievre as leader in a post-election leadership review.

Reuters has previously reported Poilievre faced internal strains as he doubled down on a combative style associated by critics with U.S.-style populist politics. More recently, Reuters noted that a Conservative MP’s defection to the Liberals added pressure on Poilievre as Carney’s party moved to within three seats of a House of Commons majority.

An international profile in The Times framed Poilievre’s post-2025 effort as a bid to reassert his appeal by emphasizing housing, energy, tax cuts and “economic sovereignty,” while expanding overseas political contacts.