The Riskiest Number in Real Estate Isn’t the Price

By Tahani Elghazaly
Published October 1, 2026

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By Ahmed Akeela

When people buy a pre-construction property, one of the first questions they usually ask is: How much do I need for the deposit?

In my view, that is not the most important question.

The question buyers should ask before signing is this: If the property is appraised for less than my purchase price at closing, will I have enough cash to complete the deal?

That question matters more today as some properties are worth less than the prices buyers agreed to pay several years ago.

The problem sounds simple until closing day arrives.

Imagine buying a pre-construction unit for $900,000. You make the required deposits over several years and assume the hardest part is behind you.

Then the unit is ready.

The bank appraises it at $800,000.

Your contract is still for $900,000.

The lender does not simply ignore that difference because you signed the agreement three years earlier. Financing is based on today’s appraisal, today’s lending rules and the buyer’s financial situation.

That gap can suddenly become money the buyer must find personally.

This, in my opinion, exposes one of the biggest mistakes made during the years when real estate prices seemed to move in only one direction.

Buyers focused on one question: How much money do I need today to secure the property?

The better question was: How much financial pressure can I handle at closing if the market does not behave the way I expect?

Buying pre-construction is not a guarantee that the property will be worth more by the time it is completed.

And a financing strategy should never depend on the assumption that rising prices will solve the problem.

That does not mean pre-construction is automatically a bad investment, nor does it mean today’s market offers no opportunities.

It means buyers need to evaluate risk differently.

A financially prepared buyer is not simply someone who can afford the deposit.

It is someone who has already considered what happens if interest rates change, the appraisal comes in lower, or additional cash is required at closing.

So if I could ask someone considering a pre-construction purchase only one question, it would not be:

Can you afford to buy it?

It would be:

Can you afford to close if things do not go according to plan?

Because in some real estate deals, the real risk does not appear when you sign the contract.

It appears when it is time to pick up the keys.