Alberta referendum: Ipsos poll finds 70% want to stay in Canada, 23% back next step toward separation
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Seven in ten Albertans intend to vote for their province to remain part of Canada, according to a new Ipsos survey conducted for Global News ahead of Monday's referendum. Another 23% favour starting the legal process for a future binding vote on separation. «Ipsos»
The findings show that support for remaining in Canada has held steady since September, while backing for initiating the separation process has increased by three percentage points. Five per cent of respondents remain undecided, and another 2% say they do not intend to vote.
Monday's ballot does not ask Albertans to declare independence immediately. Instead, voters must choose whether Alberta should remain a Canadian province or whether its government should begin the constitutional process required to hold a separate, binding referendum on independence. Elections Alberta confirms that the outcome of the current question is non-binding.
Support for initiating the process varies across the province. Outside Calgary and Edmonton, 29% favour the proposal, compared with 21% in Calgary and 20% in Edmonton. The survey also found support among 27% of men and 19% of women, while the figure was 17% among Albertans aged 18 to 34.
The vote comes amid longstanding disagreements over Alberta's relationship with Ottawa, particularly federal energy policies, natural resources and provincial economic autonomy. Separatist advocates argue that federal decisions disadvantage Alberta, while Premier Danielle Smith and Prime Minister Mark Carney have publicly supported keeping the province within
Ipsos conducted online interviews with 801 Alberta adults between October 13 and 16. The results were weighted by region, age, gender and education, with an overall credibility interval of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points. The polling company also cautioned that surveys may be affected by additional sources of error.
The separation question is one of ten on Monday's referendum ballot, alongside proposals concerning immigration and constitutional powers. Polling stations are scheduled to operate from 9 a.m. to 8 p.m. local time. Unofficial counting must be completed within 48 hours of polls closing, with official results scheduled for October 29.
