Canada’s Winter Fuel Switch Could Ease Gas Prices After September Surge

By Tahani Elghazaly
Published September 12, 2026

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Canadian motorists are heading into a potentially important week for fuel prices after the national average climbed close to its monthly high. Canada’s winter gasoline period begins Sept. 16, creating conditions that normally help lower pump prices, although volatile global oil markets could reduce the expected relief.

The national average for regular gasoline reached 179.3 cents per litre on Saturday, Sept. 12, according to the Canadian Automobile Association. That compares with 176.6 cents a day earlier and 174.3 cents one week ago. Prices had reached 179.9 cents on Sept. 8, the highest national average recorded over the previous month.

Federal gasoline guidance defines Sept. 16 through April 14 as the winter period, following the end of the summer fuel season on Sept. 15. Different vapour-pressure requirements apply during colder months, allowing fuel formulations to change as temperatures fall.

That seasonal shift generally makes gasoline cheaper to produce. GasBuddy petroleum analyst Patrick De Haan told Global News that winter blends can use more inexpensive components such as butane, while gasoline demand also tends to decline as Canadians and Americans drive less in colder weather.

Under more typical market conditions, De Haan estimates the combined seasonal effects can reduce regular gasoline prices by five to 20 cents per litre. A 20-cent decline would translate into roughly $10 in savings on a 50-litre fill-up.

The seasonal switch, however, is only one part of the price motorists ultimately pay. CAA notes that crude-oil supply and demand, regional taxes, competition and retail distribution margins can all influence prices at individual stations and across provinces.

Global energy disruptions also remain a major uncertainty. De Haan cautioned that renewed geopolitical pressure on oil supplies could offset some of the usual autumn decline, meaning the five-to-20-cent range reflects a normal seasonal pattern rather than a guaranteed nationwide price cut.