Carney One Seat Away From Majority as Monday Vote Tests Liberal Strength

By Tahani Elghazaly
Published April 12, 2026

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Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government is now just one seat short of a parliamentary majority after Conservative MP Marilyn Gladu crossed the floor to join the Liberal Party, pushing the Liberals to 171 seats in the 343-seat House of Commons. That leaves the government only one seat away from the 172-seat threshold needed for a majority.

The move puts Monday, April 13, 2026 by-elections at the center of Canada’s political attention. The contests are being held in three ridings: Scarborough Southwest, University–Rosedale, and Terrebonne. A Liberal victory in just one of those races would be enough to move Carney’s government from minority status to a full majority in the House.

The stakes are high in Ottawa because a majority would give Carney greater room to advance legislation without relying as heavily on opposition support. Gladu’s move also fits into a broader pattern of opposition defections to the Liberals in recent months, a trend Reuters described as unusual in modern Canadian federal politics.

Political attention is now focused on whether the Liberals can quickly convert that momentum into a majority, or whether the opposition can delay that outcome. Preliminary results are expected shortly after the polls close Monday night.