Canadians Rethink U.S. City Travel
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A new University of Toronto study is raising fresh questions about how Canadians are changing their travel habits toward the United States, after researchers found a sharp drop in Canadian visits to major American metropolitan areas.
The study, which used cellphone mobility data, found an estimated 42% year over year decline in Canadian visits to U.S. metro areas. That figure is notably steeper than official border crossing data, which has pointed to a smaller decline of around 25%. Researchers analyzed Canadian devices traveling in U.S. metropolitan areas between April 1, 2024, and March 31, 2026.
The finding matters because mobility data does not simply count border crossings. It helps show where people actually go after entering the United States, including major cities, tourist districts, business hubs, shopping areas, and winter travel destinations.
The decline was not limited to border communities. The study pointed to weaker Canadian traffic in major destinations such as New York, Las Vegas, San Francisco, and Houston, as well as smaller cities with close economic ties to Canada.
Researchers and analysts have linked the shift to a broader mix of factors, including trade tensions, tariffs, stricter border enforcement, and the changing political climate in Washington. But the numbers also suggest a larger question: are Canadians beginning to redirect their travel spending away from the United States?
The study’s findings are consistent with official Canadian data showing a continued decline in travel to the U.S. Statistics Canada reported that Canadian residents returned from 2.0 million trips to the United States in February 2026, down 12.5% from the same month a year earlier. That marked the 14th consecutive month of year over year decline.
At the same time, Canadian travel to overseas destinations increased. Statistics Canada said Canadian residents returned from 1.4 million overseas trips in February 2026, up 6.8% from a year earlier.
For U.S. tourism businesses, the decline could carry real economic consequences. Canadian visitors have long been important to hotels, restaurants, retailers, resorts, and border state economies. For Canada, the shift may create an opening for domestic tourism if provinces and cities can capture more of the travel spending that might otherwise leave the country.
The key question now is whether this is a temporary reaction to political and economic tensions, or the beginning of a deeper change in how Canadians think about travel to the United States.
