Limited Improvement Falls Short of Recovery as Gulf Oil Exports Remain 40% Below Pre-War Levels
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Crude oil and condensate exports from five Gulf countries remained about 40% below pre-war levels in July, despite a modest increase to approximately 10.7 million barrels per day.
Ship-tracking data from Kpler showed that exports rose only 2% from June. Higher shipments from Iraq, Kuwait and Iran lifted the monthly average, while exports from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates declined.
The figures cover crude and condensate cargoes shipped from ports in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, Kuwait and Iran. They measure seaborne exports rather than each country’s total oil production.
Iraq accounted for most of the monthly increase, doubling its exports from June after loading nine additional very large crude carriers. The rise, however, was not enough to restore overall Gulf shipments to normal levels.
Exports reached between 12 million and 13 million barrels per day during the first half of July before slowing as fighting resumed and vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz declined.
Only eight ships crossed the strait on Tuesday, including five tankers, compared with the roughly 130 to 140 vessels that used the route each day before the war. The sharp drop reflects continued disruption in the waterway that carries a large share of Gulf energy exports.
Pressure also extended to the Red Sea. Saudi crude loadings from the port of Yanbu fell to about three million barrels per day after July 20, compared with an average of 3.8 million barrels per day between April and June, as security risks increased near Bab el-Mandeb.
Fourteen vessels reported attacks in the region to the International Maritime Organization during July, up from eight in June. The deterioration has raised insurance costs, delayed voyages and forced some tankers to change routes.
The figures show that Gulf export volumes are no longer determined only by how much oil producers can pump. Security in the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb, along with shipping and insurance conditions, has become equally important to the flow of energy supplies to global markets.
